Elias Barros

Valuation

Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.

Performance profile

Strong goal threat forward (81th percentile), with above average finishing (73th). Defending is the clear gap at the 5th percentile. Availability is the headline risk: 12% of available minutes played.

Season

Key strengths

• Goal threat is a clear strength81th percentile among FWDs in this division

Key risks and limitations

• Defending is a clear weakness5th percentile among FWDs in this division
• Availability is the headline risk12% of available minutes; 18 matchweeks missed
• Too few minutes to rank against peers267 minutes, below the 270-minute floor. Rates are shown but carry no percentile.

Valuation history

Comparable players

Comparable transfers

Not available. The feed carries no observed transfer fees and no contract expiry dates, so there is nothing to build a comparable-fee distribution from.

This section is left in rather than removed, because its absence is itself a finding: any fee inference in this report would be unsupported.

Data confidence

Model confidence

47%of 72% ceiling

Sample

267 min · 6 apps

Last fixture

26 Dec

Percentiles are taken against FWDs in the Demo Premier League with 270 or more minutes. The model holds no contract, injury, wage or transfer data, and no progressive passing, carrying or pressing metrics.

Methodology

Weekly output is weighted by position, discounted by minutes as a credibility multiplier, and compared against an exponentially weighted average of the player’s own previous weeks — so the model moves on surprise rather than output. That becomes a percentile within the position group, then adjusted for age, league strength, position and availability.

An estimated value is not a transfer fee. Full methodology.