Player report
Rafael Ekstrom
MID · Granthorpe · Demo Premier League · 32 years · Denmark
Valuation
Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.
Performance profile
Player DNA
- Goal threat96
- Chance creation36
- Finishing97
- Defending16
- Availability14
Per 90, percentile ranked
- Goals0.45
- Assists0.00
- Shots2.3
- Shots on target1.1
- Key passes0.9
- Expected goals0.31
- Expected assists0.03
- Tackles1.1
- Interceptions0.7
- Clearances0.9
Elite finishing midfielder (97th percentile), with elite goal threat (96th). Defending is the clear gap at the 16th percentile. Availability is the headline risk: 18% of available minutes played.
Season
Key strengths
- Finishing is a clear strength97th percentile among MIDs in this division
- Goal threat is a clear strength96th percentile among MIDs in this division
- Elite volume of shots on target1.14 per 90, 99th percentile
Key risks and limitations
- Defending is a clear weakness16th percentile among MIDs in this division
- Availability is the headline risk18% of available minutes; 14 matchweeks missed
- Small sample396 minutes across 10 appearances. Percentiles are published but thinly evidenced.
- Low model confidence40% against a ceiling of 72%. The valuation range is correspondingly wide.
Valuation history
Comparable players
| Player | Similarity | Value | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo EkstromIlkeston Park | 84% | €51.5m | 21 |
| Wilson ZielinskiNorthfleet | 81% | €24.9m | 24 |
| Lucas OkaforBrackenford | 80% | €12.1m | 21 |
| Kai XimenesFallowfield | 80% | €4.16m | 20 |
| Goran ArdalLangmere | 78% | €5.00m | 21 |
Comparable transfers
Not available. The feed carries no observed transfer fees and no contract expiry dates, so there is nothing to build a comparable-fee distribution from.
This section is left in rather than removed, because its absence is itself a finding: any fee inference in this report would be unsupported.
Data confidence
- Model confidence
- 40%of 72% ceiling
- Sample
- 396 min · 10 apps
- Last fixture
- 16 Jan
Percentiles are taken against MIDs in the Demo Premier League with 270 or more minutes. The model holds no contract, injury, wage or transfer data, and no progressive passing, carrying or pressing metrics.
Methodology
Weekly output is weighted by position, discounted by minutes as a credibility multiplier, and compared against an exponentially weighted average of the player’s own previous weeks — so the model moves on surprise rather than output. That becomes a percentile within the position group, then adjusted for age, league strength, position and availability.
An estimated value is not a transfer fee. Full methodology.