Rafael Gallagher

Valuation

Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.

Performance profile

Elite chance creation forward (97th percentile), with elite defending (94th). Availability is the headline risk: 27% of available minutes played.

Season

Key strengths

• Chance creation is a clear strength97th percentile among FWDs in this division
• Defending is a clear strength94th percentile among FWDs in this division
• Goal threat is a clear strength82th percentile among FWDs in this division
• Elite volume of assists0.47 per 90, 99th percentile

Key risks and limitations

• Availability is the headline risk27% of available minutes; 13 matchweeks missed
• Small sample580 minutes across 11 appearances. Percentiles are published but thinly evidenced.

Valuation history

Comparable players

Comparable transfers

Not available. The feed carries no observed transfer fees and no contract expiry dates, so there is nothing to build a comparable-fee distribution from.

This section is left in rather than removed, because its absence is itself a finding: any fee inference in this report would be unsupported.

Data confidence

Model confidence

52%of 72% ceiling

Sample

580 min · 11 apps

Last fixture

9 Jan

Percentiles are taken against FWDs in the Demo Premier League with 270 or more minutes. The model holds no contract, injury, wage or transfer data, and no progressive passing, carrying or pressing metrics.

Methodology

Weekly output is weighted by position, discounted by minutes as a credibility multiplier, and compared against an exponentially weighted average of the player’s own previous weeks — so the model moves on surprise rather than output. That becomes a percentile within the position group, then adjusted for age, league strength, position and availability.

An estimated value is not a transfer fee. Full methodology.