Felix Ibarra

Valuation

Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.

Performance profile

Elite chance creation midfielder (97th percentile), with strong defending (85th). Availability is the headline risk: 31% of available minutes played.

Season

Key strengths

• Chance creation is a clear strength97th percentile among MIDs in this division
• Defending is a clear strength85th percentile among MIDs in this division
• Elite volume of key passes1.46 per 90, 99th percentile

Key risks and limitations

• Availability is the headline risk31% of available minutes; 14 matchweeks missed
• Small sample676 minutes across 10 appearances. Percentiles are published but thinly evidenced.
• Low model confidence40% against a ceiling of 72%. The valuation range is correspondingly wide.

Valuation history

Comparable players

Comparable transfers

Not available. The feed carries no observed transfer fees and no contract expiry dates, so there is nothing to build a comparable-fee distribution from.

This section is left in rather than removed, because its absence is itself a finding: any fee inference in this report would be unsupported.

Data confidence

Model confidence

40%of 72% ceiling

Sample

676 min · 10 apps

Last fixture

23 Jan

Percentiles are taken against MIDs in the Demo Premier League with 270 or more minutes. The model holds no contract, injury, wage or transfer data, and no progressive passing, carrying or pressing metrics.

Methodology

Weekly output is weighted by position, discounted by minutes as a credibility multiplier, and compared against an exponentially weighted average of the player’s own previous weeks — so the model moves on surprise rather than output. That becomes a percentile within the position group, then adjusted for age, league strength, position and availability.

An estimated value is not a transfer fee. Full methodology.