Mateo Kovac

Valuation

Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.

Performance profile

Strong defending defender (86th percentile). Goal threat is the clear gap at the 8th percentile. Availability is the headline risk: 3% of available minutes played.

Season

Key strengths

• Defending is a clear strength86th percentile among DEFs in this division

Key risks and limitations

• Goal threat is a clear weakness8th percentile among DEFs in this division
• Availability is the headline risk3% of available minutes; 20 matchweeks missed
• Too few minutes to rank against peers73 minutes, below the 270-minute floor. Rates are shown but carry no percentile.
• Low model confidence24% against a ceiling of 72%. The valuation range is correspondingly wide.

Valuation history

Comparable players

Comparable transfers

Not available. The feed carries no observed transfer fees and no contract expiry dates, so there is nothing to build a comparable-fee distribution from.

This section is left in rather than removed, because its absence is itself a finding: any fee inference in this report would be unsupported.

Data confidence

Model confidence

24%of 72% ceiling

Sample

73 min · 4 apps

Last fixture

19 Dec

Percentiles are taken against DEFs in the Demo Premier League with 270 or more minutes. The model holds no contract, injury, wage or transfer data, and no progressive passing, carrying or pressing metrics.

Methodology

Weekly output is weighted by position, discounted by minutes as a credibility multiplier, and compared against an exponentially weighted average of the player’s own previous weeks — so the model moves on surprise rather than output. That becomes a percentile within the position group, then adjusted for age, league strength, position and availability.

An estimated value is not a transfer fee. Full methodology.