Elias Okafor

Valuation

Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.

Performance profile

Well-rounded defender without a standout axis in this data — no category clears the 52th percentile among positional peers. Availability is the headline risk: 30% of available minutes played.

Season

Key strengths

• Elite volume of goals conceded0.69 per 90, 94th percentile

Key risks and limitations

• Availability is the headline risk30% of available minutes; 14 matchweeks missed
• Small sample650 minutes across 10 appearances. Percentiles are published but thinly evidenced.
• Low model confidence42% against a ceiling of 72%. The valuation range is correspondingly wide.

Valuation history

Comparable players

Comparable transfers

Not available. The feed carries no observed transfer fees and no contract expiry dates, so there is nothing to build a comparable-fee distribution from.

This section is left in rather than removed, because its absence is itself a finding: any fee inference in this report would be unsupported.

Data confidence

Model confidence

42%of 72% ceiling

Sample

650 min · 10 apps

Last fixture

19 Dec

Percentiles are taken against DEFs in the Demo Premier League with 270 or more minutes. The model holds no contract, injury, wage or transfer data, and no progressive passing, carrying or pressing metrics.

Methodology

Weekly output is weighted by position, discounted by minutes as a credibility multiplier, and compared against an exponentially weighted average of the player’s own previous weeks — so the model moves on surprise rather than output. That becomes a percentile within the position group, then adjusted for age, league strength, position and availability.

An estimated value is not a transfer fee. Full methodology.