Gabriel Ugarte

Valuation

Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.

Performance profile

Strong chance creation defender (87th percentile), with above average goal threat (58th). Defending is the clear gap at the 0th percentile. Availability is the headline risk: 37% of available minutes played.

Season

Key strengths

• Chance creation is a clear strength87th percentile among DEFs in this division
• Elite volume of key passes0.68 per 90, 94th percentile

Key risks and limitations

• Defending is a clear weakness0th percentile among DEFs in this division
• Availability is the headline risk37% of available minutes; 13 matchweeks missed
• Small sample799 minutes across 11 appearances. Percentiles are published but thinly evidenced.

Valuation history

Comparable players

Comparable transfers

Not available. The feed carries no observed transfer fees and no contract expiry dates, so there is nothing to build a comparable-fee distribution from.

This section is left in rather than removed, because its absence is itself a finding: any fee inference in this report would be unsupported.

Data confidence

Model confidence

57%of 72% ceiling

Sample

799 min · 11 apps

Last fixture

16 Jan

Percentiles are taken against DEFs in the Demo Premier League with 270 or more minutes. The model holds no contract, injury, wage or transfer data, and no progressive passing, carrying or pressing metrics.

Methodology

Weekly output is weighted by position, discounted by minutes as a credibility multiplier, and compared against an exponentially weighted average of the player’s own previous weeks — so the model moves on surprise rather than output. That becomes a percentile within the position group, then adjusted for age, league strength, position and availability.

An estimated value is not a transfer fee. Full methodology.