Samir Ugarte

Valuation

Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.

Performance profile

Above average defending defender (72th percentile). Chance creation is the clear gap at the 4th percentile. Availability is the headline risk: 14% of available minutes played.

Season

Key strengths

• Elite volume of clearances3.24 per 90, 92th percentile

Key risks and limitations

• Goal threat is a clear weakness8th percentile among DEFs in this division
• Chance creation is a clear weakness4th percentile among DEFs in this division
• Availability is the headline risk14% of available minutes; 19 matchweeks missed
• Small sample306 minutes across 5 appearances. Percentiles are published but thinly evidenced.
• Low model confidence37% against a ceiling of 72%. The valuation range is correspondingly wide.

Valuation history

Comparable players

Comparable transfers

Not available. The feed carries no observed transfer fees and no contract expiry dates, so there is nothing to build a comparable-fee distribution from.

This section is left in rather than removed, because its absence is itself a finding: any fee inference in this report would be unsupported.

Data confidence

Model confidence

37%of 72% ceiling

Sample

306 min · 5 apps

Last fixture

2 Jan

Percentiles are taken against DEFs in the Demo Premier League with 270 or more minutes. The model holds no contract, injury, wage or transfer data, and no progressive passing, carrying or pressing metrics.

Methodology

Weekly output is weighted by position, discounted by minutes as a credibility multiplier, and compared against an exponentially weighted average of the player’s own previous weeks — so the model moves on surprise rather than output. That becomes a percentile within the position group, then adjusted for age, league strength, position and availability.

An estimated value is not a transfer fee. Full methodology.