Dmitri Ugarte

Valuation

Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.

Performance profile

Above average chance creation forward (57th percentile). Defending is the clear gap at the 12th percentile. Availability is the headline risk: 44% of available minutes played.

Season

Key strengths

• No standout axis in this dataNothing clears the 80th percentile among positional peers on the metrics we carry.

Key risks and limitations

• Finishing is a clear weakness16th percentile among FWDs in this division
• Defending is a clear weakness12th percentile among FWDs in this division
• Availability is the headline risk44% of available minutes; 10 matchweeks missed

Valuation history

Comparable players

Comparable transfers

Not available. The feed carries no observed transfer fees and no contract expiry dates, so there is nothing to build a comparable-fee distribution from.

This section is left in rather than removed, because its absence is itself a finding: any fee inference in this report would be unsupported.

Data confidence

Model confidence

70%of 72% ceiling

Sample

960 min · 14 apps

Last fixture

23 Jan

Percentiles are taken against FWDs in the Demo Premier League with 270 or more minutes. The model holds no contract, injury, wage or transfer data, and no progressive passing, carrying or pressing metrics.

Methodology

Weekly output is weighted by position, discounted by minutes as a credibility multiplier, and compared against an exponentially weighted average of the player’s own previous weeks — so the model moves on surprise rather than output. That becomes a percentile within the position group, then adjusted for age, league strength, position and availability.

An estimated value is not a transfer fee. Full methodology.