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Lucas Moreau
Estimated market value
€42.1m
- Model range
- €26.6m – €57.5m
- Confidence
- 66%
- Season change
- +19.1%
Movement
- Last matchweek
- +7.1%
- Last 4 matchweeks
- −3.1%
- Season to date
- +19.1%
Reported in matchweeks, not days — football data arrives by fixture round.
Model estimate, uncalibrated. Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.
Valuation drivers
What moves this away from the €4.00m base value
- Performance+€29.3m
- Age+€6.12m
- League€0
- Position+€2.68m
- Availability€0
Not in this model
- ContractNo contract expiry data in the feed
- Market comparablesNo observed transfer fees in the feed
Availability
Read any valuation against this first
21 appearances, 20 starts, 3 matchweeks missed.
A player who is not on the pitch drifts down the index without his performance level falling with it, and availability is a direct discount on the valuation above. An unavailable player is not the same thing as a cheap one.
Scenarios
What the model would say under a different set of facts
- As measured€42.1mbenchmark
- Performance +10%€46.3m+€4.21m · +10.0%
- Performance +20%€50.5m+€8.42m · +20.0%
- Performance −10%€37.9m−€4.21m · −10.0%
- One year older€43.2m+€1.15m · +2.7%
- Fully availableNo availability discount left to recover—
- Moves to a stronger divisionAlready in the strongest division we rate—
These are counterfactuals, not forecasts. Each row is the same model run with one input changed — it says nothing about whether that change is likely. The benchmark is this player’s measured estimate of €42.1m.
Player DNA
Percentile against FWDs in the Demo Premier League
- Goal threat28
- Chance creation62
- Finishing82
- Defending83
- Availability91
Strong defending forward (83th percentile), with strong finishing (82th). Goal threat is the clear gap at the 28th percentile.
Generated from the metrics above, not from scouting notes. Ball progression and pressing are absent because the feed carries no progressive passes, carries or pressures.
Valuation history
The performance index the valuation is built on, by matchweek
Profile
Per-90 percentiles against FWDs
Percentiles as a table
| Metric | Lucas Moreau |
|---|---|
| Goals | 60th |
| Expected goals | 53rd |
| Shots on target | 27th |
| Assists | 61st |
| Expected assists | 60th |
| Key passes | 66th |
Per 90
Rate and percentile among FWDs with 270+ minutes
- Goals0.25
- Assists0.20
- Shots2.3
- Shots on target0.6
- Key passes1.5
- Expected goals0.20
- Expected assists0.17
- Tackles0.6
- Interceptions0.6
- Clearances1.0
Finishing
Goals against the quality of the chances they came from, running total
Scoring 1.09 goals more than his chances were worth. Finishing runs like this historically revert.
Comparable players
Closest percentile profiles among the same position
| Player | Similarity | Value | Age | Alike on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson XimenesCalderbrook | 84% | €42.2m | 27 | assists, expected assists |
| Adam ToureenThorneside | 84% | €3.40m | 20 | clearances, goals |
| Goran OkaforIlkeston Park | 83% | €48.0m | 23 | expected assists, tackles |
| Emil AbbottAshcombe | 80% | €8.07m | 29 | expected goals, clearances |
| Hugo VasquezKelsford | 80% | €35.5m | 25 | expected goals, shots on target |
| Adam IbarraHollinwell | 79% | €5.08m | 30 | expected assists, key passes |
Match log
21 appearances this season
| MW | Date | Opponent | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | xG | xA | KP | Tkl | Int | Clr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 23 Jan | at KelsfordL 1–2 | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.71 | 0.01 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 22 | 9 Jan | at GranthorpeW 3–0 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 21 | 2 Jan | at EastmarshD 1–1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 20 | 26 Dec | at CalderbrookD 1–1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.04 | 0.67 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 18 | 12 Dec | at AshcombeW 3–0 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.71 | 0.02 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 17 | 5 Dec | v PendleburyW 5–0 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 16 | 28 Nov | v NorthfleetD 0–0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 15 | 21 Nov | v LangmereD 0–0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 14 | 14 Nov | v JarrowgateW 1–0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 13 | 7 Nov | v HollinwellD 1–1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 12 | 31 Oct | v FallowfieldL 1–2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | 24 Oct | v Deepdale ValeW 1–0 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 10 | 17 Oct | v BrackenfordW 1–0 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 9 | 10 Oct | v StanmoorD 0–0 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 8 | 3 Oct | v QuarrydaleL 0–2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 7 | 26 Sept | v OakhurstD 2–2 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 0.68 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5 | 12 Sept | v KelsfordW 2–1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.71 | 0.10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 5 Sept | v Ilkeston ParkW 2–0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 29 Aug | v GranthorpeL 0–1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 22 Aug | v EastmarshW 4–0 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.05 | 0.66 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 15 Aug | v CalderbrookW 1–0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Data
- Last fixture
- 23 Jan
- Matchweeks covered
- 24
- Model
- 0.3.0-uncalibrated
Comparable transfers and contract situation are not shown, because the feed carries no transfer fees and no contract expiry dates. See methodology for what the model can and cannot see.