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FWDDemo Premier LeagueSpain19 years

Lucas Moreau

Rookwood · #17 · MOR7

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Estimated market value

€42.1m

Model range
€26.6m – €57.5m
Confidence
66%
Season change
+19.1%

Movement

Last matchweek
+7.1%
Last 4 matchweeks
−3.1%
Season to date
+19.1%

Reported in matchweeks, not days — football data arrives by fixture round.

Model estimate, uncalibrated. Values are model estimates on an uncalibrated scale. They are not predictions of a transfer fee and have not been validated against observed fees. Model 0.3.0-uncalibrated.

Valuation drivers

What moves this away from the €4.00m base value

  • Performance+€29.3m
  • Age+€6.12m
  • League€0
  • Position+€2.68m
  • Availability€0

Not in this model

  • ContractNo contract expiry data in the feed
  • Market comparablesNo observed transfer fees in the feed

Availability

Read any valuation against this first

Available minutes played82% · 1774 of 2160

21 appearances, 20 starts, 3 matchweeks missed.

A player who is not on the pitch drifts down the index without his performance level falling with it, and availability is a direct discount on the valuation above. An unavailable player is not the same thing as a cheap one.

Scenarios

What the model would say under a different set of facts

  • As measured€42.1mbenchmark
  • Performance +10%€46.3m+€4.21m · +10.0%
  • Performance +20%€50.5m+€8.42m · +20.0%
  • Performance −10%€37.9m−€4.21m · −10.0%
  • One year older€43.2m+€1.15m · +2.7%
  • Fully availableNo availability discount left to recover
  • Moves to a stronger divisionAlready in the strongest division we rate

These are counterfactuals, not forecasts. Each row is the same model run with one input changed — it says nothing about whether that change is likely. The benchmark is this player’s measured estimate of €42.1m.

Player DNA

Percentile against FWDs in the Demo Premier League

  • Goal threat28
  • Chance creation62
  • Finishing82
  • Defending83
  • Availability91

Strong defending forward (83th percentile), with strong finishing (82th). Goal threat is the clear gap at the 28th percentile.

Generated from the metrics above, not from scouting notes. Ball progression and pressing are absent because the feed carries no progressive passes, carries or pressures.

Valuation history

The performance index the valuation is built on, by matchweek

Lucas Moreau index by matchweek

Profile

Per-90 percentiles against FWDs

Percentiles as a table
MetricLucas Moreau
Goals60th
Expected goals53rd
Shots on target27th
Assists61st
Expected assists60th
Key passes66th

Per 90

Rate and percentile among FWDs with 270+ minutes

  • Goals0.25
  • Assists0.20
  • Shots2.3
  • Shots on target0.6
  • Key passes1.5
  • Expected goals0.20
  • Expected assists0.17
  • Tackles0.6
  • Interceptions0.6
  • Clearances1.0

Finishing

Goals against the quality of the chances they came from, running total

Lucas Moreau cumulative goals minus expected goals
0.0+0.5+1.0Matchweek

Scoring 1.09 goals more than his chances were worth. Finishing runs like this historically revert.

Comparable players

Closest percentile profiles among the same position

Compare →
PlayerSimilarityValueAgeAlike on
Wilson XimenesCalderbrook84%€42.2m27assists, expected assists
Adam ToureenThorneside84%€3.40m20clearances, goals
Goran OkaforIlkeston Park83%€48.0m23expected assists, tackles
Emil AbbottAshcombe80%€8.07m29expected goals, clearances
Hugo VasquezKelsford80%€35.5m25expected goals, shots on target
Adam IbarraHollinwell79%€5.08m30expected assists, key passes

Match log

21 appearances this season

Match-by-match statistics, most recent first
MWDateOpponentMinGAShSoTxGxAKPTklIntClr
2423 Janat KelsfordL 1278102.01.00.710.012.00.00.01.0
229 Janat GranthorpeW 3079001.00.00.010.051.00.00.01.0
212 Janat EastmarshD 1190001.00.00.040.002.01.00.01.0
2026 Decat CalderbrookD 1190012.01.00.040.671.00.01.01.0
1812 Decat AshcombeW 3090104.01.00.710.022.01.01.01.0
175 Decv PendleburyW 5090113.02.00.680.682.00.00.01.0
1628 Novv NorthfleetD 0090001.00.00.010.022.01.00.01.0
1521 Novv LangmereD 0090002.00.00.040.081.01.01.01.0
1414 Novv JarrowgateW 1090002.00.00.010.011.00.00.00.0
137 Novv HollinwellD 1180002.00.00.030.051.01.01.01.0
1231 Octv FallowfieldL 1290001.00.00.030.052.01.01.00.0
1124 Octv Deepdale ValeW 1058102.01.00.680.040.00.00.01.0
1017 Octv BrackenfordW 1072002.00.00.020.021.01.01.01.0
910 Octv StanmoorD 0063001.00.00.020.031.01.00.01.0
83 Octv QuarrydaleL 0290004.01.00.030.011.00.00.01.0
726 Septv OakhurstD 2284011.00.00.030.682.00.01.01.0
512 Septv KelsfordW 2190104.01.00.710.101.01.01.01.0
45 Septv Ilkeston ParkW 2090001.00.00.040.081.01.00.01.0
329 Augv GranthorpeL 0190003.01.00.010.012.01.01.01.0
222 Augv EastmarshW 4090014.02.00.050.663.00.01.01.0
115 Augv CalderbrookW 1090002.01.00.010.021.00.01.01.0

Data

Last fixture
23 Jan
Matchweeks covered
24
Model
0.3.0-uncalibrated

Comparable transfers and contract situation are not shown, because the feed carries no transfer fees and no contract expiry dates. See methodology for what the model can and cannot see.